Poll: Banks Not Getting Nats


I remain a little sceptical about local body election polls - but if you believe the latest one current Auckland mayor Banks is failing to attract expected support from National Party voters.

It claims:

  • Among National Party supporters have who have already voted, 38% back Banks, 36% Brown
  • Among National supporters who have yet to vote, Brown wins 35% to 29%

The latest HorizonPoll tracking survey finds Len Brown continuing to gain over John Banks in the Auckland super city Mayoralty race.

It’s important to note that this poll is not privy to actual voting papers so relies on an online method.

It estimates that among those who have already voted, Brown’s lead over Banks has increased from 27% to a 32%, and he leads Banks by 40% to 18% among those who have yet to vote (37% and 21% last week).

Applying the maximum margin of error in Banks’ favour, the pollsters claim Brown would still have a 20% lead.

The number expecting a Brown win has increased 8% in the past week: 42% now think he will win, 18% expect Banks to be Mayor. Last week it was 34% to 23% for Brown. Expectations of a Banks win have fallen 5% in the past week.

Brown is also winning more support among senior business decision makers.

Business managers, executives, senior professionals, proprietors and self employed who have voted, back Brown 60% to Banks 20%.

Among business decision makers yet to vote, Brown wins 40% to Banks’ 21%.

The HorizonPoll survey of 583 respondents within the super city was conducted between Thursday September 3 and Saturday October 2. Weighted by age, gender, ethnicity, employment status, personal income and party vote 2008, the maximum margin of error is ± 4.1%. The maximum margins of error on the sub sample of 307 who have already voted is ± 5.6%, and ± 5.2% on the sub sample of 356 who have yet to vote.

Among the 307 who say they have already voted:
• 55% support Brown (up from 49% in a September 23-24poll last week)
• 23% support Banks (22% last week)
• Colin Craig has 11% (no change in a week).

In the seven cities contributing to the new Auckland Council, among votes already cast Brown is head in Auckland city, Franklin, Manukau, Waitakere and Papakura.
In North Shore city the two are even at 32% (where Banks led last week), and Bank leads in Rodney.

Polling Group:
ALL: 308
Auckland: 29%
Franklin: 5%
Manukau: 24%
North Shore: 12%
Papakura: 2%
Rodney: 9%
Waitakere: 17%

ALL: 22%
Auckland: 20%
Franklin: 25%
Manukau: 11%
North Shore: 32%
Papakura: 12%
Rodney: 54%
Waitakere: 23%

ALL: 54%
Auckland: 64%
Franklin: 62%
Manukau: 69%
North Shore: 32%
Papakura: 49%
Rodney: 22%
Waitakere: 54%

ALL: 11%
Auckland: 3%
Franklin: 9%
Manukau: 12%
North Shore: 22%
Papakura: 21%
Waitakere: 8%

Among the 356 yet to vote, Banks wins the North Shore and Rodney and the contest is closer in Franklin:

Polling Group:
ALL: 357
Auckland: 31%
Franklin: 6%
Manukau: 19%
North Shore: 16%
Papakura: 1%
Rodney: 7%
Waitakere: 20%

ALL: 18%
Auckland: 18%
Franklin: 22%
Manukau: 12%
North Shore: 23%
Papakura: 20%
Rodney: 37%
Waitakere: 13%

ALL: 40%
Auckland: 48%
Franklin: 25%
Manukau: 57%
North Shore: 20%
Papakura: 71%
Rodney: 10%
Waitakere: 45%

ALL: 8%
Auckland: 6%
Manukau: 10%
North Shore: 7%
Papakura: 9%
Rodney: 13%
Waitakere: 11%

Among those who have voted or have yet to vote, Brown beats Banks across all age groups except those aged 65-74 years.

Banks has more support among those with personal incomes of $100,001 to $150,000 a year, but Brown wins in all other income groups, with twice as much support among middle income groups.

Among 2008 party voters, who are yet to vote, Brown stays head of Banks (35% to 29%) among 2008 National Party voters, while beating Banks among Maori Party, Labour, Green and smaller party voters. Banks has more NZ First Party voters than Brown.

Based on international research on the number of people of say they will vote and actually do, HorizonPoll believes there could be a 52% turnout for the election (by late last week 24% had actually voted). The last day to post in votes is next Wednesday..




  1. karl says:

    It seems that he has failed to make the more diplomatic image stick. Of course one wonders why this hurts him with National voters so much (not an attempt to be cheeky or caustic - just saying that I am surprised by the claims of this poll).

    The only other non-image issue I could see is that they don’t feel he has achieved much since he came back into power, and thus Nats supporters don’t see much to recommend him either? Oh well, idle speculation.

  2. Matt says:

    This poll could be what it takes to reverse Banks’ fortunes, though. The thought of a socialist who’s in favour of public transport being a shoo-in may motivate currently-apathetic right-wing voters to be counted.

  3. Doloras says:

    Yeah, Matt, but will they be motivated to vote for Banksy - who’s himself currently claiming to be pro-PT - or the real rightist’s wet dream, Colin “Pod Person” Craig?

  4. Matt says:

    Doloras, yes, that’s true. And the dearth of competition for the left works very much in Brown’s favour when the right are happily splitting the vote.

  5. karl says:

    Of course such an article will bring some more voters for Banks in - but when you read about the extremely high levels of support he gets in South Auckland, and the lukewarmness (at best) with which Banks is seen outside of North Shore and Auckland City, it makes you wonder whether its already over - unlike most elections, this is a postal ballot that is almost over, so even if Brown trips up badly tomorrow, or Banks does something really attention-grabbing, the effect is going to be much less than if it was a voting day election.

  6. Michael Wood says:

    Banks blew it with his ugly “South Auckland” comments. This kind of dog whistling will serve to motivate some of his intolerant core vote, but is turning off uncommitted middling voters in droves.

  7. Dilly says:

    Yes I agree Michael. Good on him, he has just motivated alot of my south auckland family to get out there and vote……for him…… NOT!!!


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