Betting On Another Train Fail!


Now there is betting on whether the trains will work tomorrow!

New Zealand’s online predictions market, iPredict, has today launched a stock asking whether or not Auckland’s controversial bus and train system will work adequately for tomorrow night’s Australia vs. Ireland Rugby World Cup match at Eden Park.

The contract, which can be traded  will measure the likelihood that one or more public transport failures will prevent ticket holders to the match from viewing at least half the game at Eden Park.

It will pay $1 if the media reports that one or more public transport interruptions have caused at least 50 public transport passengers to be prevented from seeing the first half of the match. Otherwise the contract will pay $0.

The price of the contract at any given time will indicate the percentage likelihood of a bus or train failure. That is, if the contract is trading at 25c, it means the market believes there is a 25% probability of a bus or train failure.


iPredict’s more than 5000 registered traders, plus others who sign up  free, are able to trade the stock.




  1. Jeremy says:

    Sounds like a great way of estimating the (betting) public’s confidence in the PT system, compared with promises made from those responsible. I wonder if they’re taking into account Acts of God.

  2. Feijoa says:

    Err, pretty stupid idea for a market seeing as participants could control outcome by pushing emergency button or paying fool to walk along corridor. I like markets for risk but this is a crazy idea — wonder what the Police would think of it?

  3. Ben says:


    We want a busy but “quiet” night on the platform, not some stupid chaos caused by some half-wit at i-Predict.


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